Section 4.1  Introduction to Probability Concepts
For Questions 1 to 4, which of the words certain, likely, unlikely and impossible best describes how likely each of these events is to take place. 
Question 1
Brazil will win the next Football World Cup. 
(A)  Certain 


(B)  Likely 
(C)  Unlikely 
(D)  Impossible 

Question 2
There will be snow in Kingston tomorrow.
 (A)  Certain 


(B)  Likely 
(C)  Unlikely 
(D)  Impossible 
 
Question 3
Jamaican athletes will not win any gold medals at the next Commonwealth Games. 
(A)  Certain 


(B)  Likely 
(C)  Unlikely 
(D)  Impossible 

Question 4
It will be dark for at least 8 hours in Negril tomorrow. 
(A)  Certain 


(B)  Likely 
(C)  Unlikely 
(D)  Impossible 
 
Section 4.2  Calculating the Probability of a Single Event
Questions 5 to 8 all relate to rolling a fair dice. 
Question 5
What is the probability of getting a six? 
(A) 


 
(B) 
 1 

6 

(C) 
 1 

2 

(D) 


Question 6
What is the probability of getting an odd number? 
(A) 


 
(B) 
 1 

6 

(C) 
 1 

2 

(D) 


Question 7
What is the probability of getting a 1 or a 2? 
(A) 
 1 

6 


 
(B) 
 1 

3 

(C) 
 1 

2 

(D) 


Question 8
What is the probability of getting a number greater than 2? 
(A) 
 1 

3 


 
(B) 
 1 

2 

(C) 
 2 

3 

(D) 


Section 4.3  Relative Frequency 
Question 9
It rained on 18 days in November last year. Estimate the probability that it will rain on 20th November next year. 
(A) 
 2 

5 


 
(B) 
 3 

5 

(C) 
 1 

2 

(D) 


Question 10
Robert estimates that the probability that there will be an empty space in the car park when he
arrives at work is  4  . His estimate is based on 50 

5 
observations. On how many of these 50 days was he unable to find an empty space in the car park? 
(A)  10 


(B)  20 
(C)  30 
(D)  40 

Questions 11 and 12 relate to the information shown below
Paul draws the bar chart below to show the results for his football team so far this season.

Question 11
What is the probability that his team will win their next match?
 (A) 
 2 

10 


 
(B) 
 3 

10 

(C) 
 1 

2 

(D) 


Question 12
What is the probability that his team will not win their next match? 
(A) 
 3 

10 


 
(B) 
 1 

2 

(C) 
 7 

10 

(D) 


Section 4.4  Complementary Events 
Question 13
The probability that it will rain tomorrow is  2  . 

5 
What is the probability that it will not rain tomorrow? 
(A) 
 2 

5 


 
(B) 
 1 

2 

(C) 
 3 

5 

(D) 


Question 14
If you throw a fair dice, the probability of getting a
5 or a 6 is  1  . What is the probability of not getting 

3 
a 5 or a 6? 
(A) 
 1 

3 


 
(B) 
 1 

2 

(C) 
 2 

3 

(D) 


Question 15
A bag contains 11 balls, each marked with a number from 1 to 11. A ball is taken out at random.
What is the probability that it is not odd? 
(A) 
 1 

2 


 
(B) 
 5 

11 

(C) 
 6 

11 

(D) 


Question 16
The probability that Arsenal will win their next
football match is  7  . What is the probability that 

10 
Arsenal will not win their next football match? 
(A) 
 3 

10 


 
(B) 
 1 

2 

(C) 
 7 

10 

(D) 


Section 4.5  Estimating the Number of Outcomes 
Question 17
If you toss an unbiased coin 200 times, approximately how many times will you expect to get HEADS? 
(A)  50 


(B)  100 
(C)  150 
(D)  None of these 

Question 18
If you throw an unbiased dice 60 times, approximately how many '6s' will you expect to get? 
(A)  10 


(B)  20 
(C)  30 
(D)  None of these 

Question 19
A large packet of sweets has mint, fruit and toffee sweets, with equal probability.
If there are 120 sweets in the packet, how many would you expect to be mint flavour? 
(A)  30 


(B)  40 
(C)  60 
(D)  None of these 

Question 20
The probability that you find a prize in a cereal
packet is  1  . How many prizes would you expect 

20 
to find if you opened 40 packets?

(A)  1 


(B)  2 
(C)  4 
(D)  None of these 
